Raising Cain in Dundee Township: Party Defection and the Shefali Shah Effect Prompting False Hopes of Election
By Marc V. Avelar
May 31, 2025
On May 17, 2025, Shaw Media (Kane County Chronicle) published the article documenting former Republican Candida “Connie” Cain announcing her switch to the Democratic Party and announcing her bid for Kane County treasurer in 2026.
One might have thought April Fools Day was delayed by 6 weeks upon reading the article about the Gilberts resident and Dundee Township elected Republican committeeperson who was also the treasurer of the Dundee Township Republican Organization (DTRO) declaring a Democratic challenge to incumbent Treasurer Chris Lauzen of Aurora. While Lauzen hasn’t decided if he’ll seek a 2nd term as treasurer yet, so much to unpack from this bizarre publicity stunt from the 60-something Cain.
Cain responded directly to me, through a public social media reply, about her decision to switch parties on Sunday, May 18:
“I switched to the Kane County Democrats to fight for Kane County’s future, leaving GOP failures like unaddressed misconduct behind. As a CPA, I’m running for Treasurer to deliver fiscal stability, not against Lauzen but in the Democratic primary." -- Connie Cain, May 18, 2025
Whatever.
Cain immediately resigned her office in DTRO and her resignation from her precinct committeeperson office was received by Kane County Republican Party Chairman Andro Lerario.
While Chairman Lerario, as the party chairman, chose the “she who shall not be named” route addressing the Cain defection, being a Dundee Township resident for 30 years, let’s look at what’s going on and try to apply some discernment.
We must hope Cain is healed of whatever may be afflicting her and she decides not to file for any office in 2026.
As recent as May 8, Cain still considered herself a Republican, and attended the inaugural meeting of the new grassroots group Conservative Women Care of Kane County, organized by Dundee Township Republican Precinct Committeeperson Pam Carr.
Indeed, Cain posed for the group picture published on social media from the May 8 event in East Dundee (note red down arrow).
No One Buying Cain’s Party Switch
At the Monday morning, May 19, inauguration of newly elected Dundee Township Supervisor Shefali Shah (D, East Dundee), Cain’s party switch was the smallest of small talk among the 3 to 4 dozen people gathered to witness Shah’s historic swearing-in, and Connie Cain was not one of them. One or two Democratic party leaders were sharing Cain’s hard-R voter history on their smartphones going as far back as 2008.
Additionally, no Democratic Party leaders were doing victory laps at Cain’s party switch, not Kane County Democratic Party Chairman Mark Guethle or Dundee Township Democratic Party Chairman Chris Kious.
Those Democratic shoulder shrugs at Cain’s publicity stunt tells all one needs to know that Cain went rogue and she was not recruited to be a potential Democratic challenger to Treasurer Lauzen next year.
Many Democrats are convinced, after their showing in the April 1 elections, a “D” next to any name can defeat a Republican opponent including for countywide office. Heck, the Shefali Shah supervisor victory was proof the Democrats think they’re world beaters with a “D”.
And why shouldn’t the Democrats feel confident? Look at these final returns from Dundee Township’s 35 precincts in the April 1 elections, with color coding for which supervisor candidate won a precinct.
Of the 35 precincts, Democrat Shah won 20 precincts, incumbent Republican Arin Thrower won 12 and 3 precincts were ties. Given Shah began the campaign with zero name ID and still defeated an elected incumbent, maybe Cain thinks she can do the same in 2026 countywide, assuming she can win a Democratic primary?
In 2026, the Republican-held Kane County offices of treasurer and clerk, plus 4 Republican-held county board seats in Districts 5, 9, 15 & 21 are up for election. The Kane County Democrats, buoyed by their April 1 election results, have their sights set on flipping all six of those offices, while having to defend the open sheriff’s office and their 8 county board seats up in 2026.
Given Dundee Township’s Republican decline on April 1, the 21st County Board District, currently held by County Board Member Cliff Surges of Gilberts, is the number one target among the county board races given over 2/3 of this district lies within Dundee Township. The 9th District seat held by incumbent and former state Representative Gary Daugherty of unincorporated Rutland Township is also seen as a target, and being treated as an open seat.
The Democrats have their spatulas out and think they can flip the six Republican-held seats next year for Kane countywide and county board districts. Very few of the Democratic-held seats on the County Board are at risk of being flipped, in spite of some 1st term incumbents seeking reelection for the 1st time.
When was the last time Republicans flipped Kane County seats?
History is working against Republicans in 2026.
Ask oneself, when was the last time a Republican flipped a Democratic-held Kane countywide office? The answer is 2014 in the open sheriff’s race. How about defeating a sitting incumbent for a countywide office? The year was 2000 when Republicans flipped the Democratic-held coroner’s office, but that was an appointed incumbent.
In the last 30 years, Republicans have not flipped a countywide seat held by an elected incumbent. Fortunately, at the countywide level, no elected Democratic incumbent is seeking reelection.
When was the last time the Republicans flipped a Kane County Board seat from the Democrats? The answer is 2002, when the 24th District seat in Carpentersville was flipped, primarily because the Democratic incumbent was on his death-bed during that election.
The point is, Republicans have to go back decades where any real electoral success took place in Kane County at the ballot box for Kane County offices. Seeing Donald Trump return to the White House is good, but locally, Republicans must shift strategies to win again over the Democrats in 2026 for Kane countywide offices and county board districts.
What happened on April 1, 2025, in Dundee and Elgin townships cannot be blamed on gerrymandered maps. Any wonder why Connie Cain switched parties in order to win?
But Republicans WON the Retail Sales Tax Increase Battle on April 1– Why not run against taxes?
In spite of Republicans winning the tax fight with the tax referendum going down by a supermajority, in Dundee and Elgin townships, a majority of those “no” votes voted for Democrats over Republicans.
While taxes on the ballot as a referendum like on April 1, or as a constitutional amendment back in 2020 were defeated, those “no” votes did not translate to Republicans defeating Democrats in the same election in Kane County.
Recall state Senator Cristina Castro’s effective multiple targeted mailings for the April 1 election:
Republican Ground Game MUST Be Complemented by “Air Cover” in mailers, digital marketing including texts, and phone calls
As discussed elsewhere, the Republican wipeout from April 1 was not confined to Kane County. In neighboring DuPage County, Republicans lost 49 of 49 contested races against Democratic opponents, compared with 12 in Kane County. A couple of notable high-profile flips:
- Two-term Addison Township Supervisor Dennis Reboletti lost reelection to Democrat Drew Hernandez. Prior to election as supervisor in 2017, Reboletti was a 5-term state representative
- Winfield Township Supervisor Nicole Prater lost to Democratic challenger DuPage County Board Member Sheila Rutledge with 59.5% of the vote. Rutledge is resigning her county board seat at the end of August (hint: Elgin Township Supervisor Vern Tepe has made no similar announcement about his county board seat)
DuPage County Democratic Chairman Reid McCollum has been quoted many times since April 1 about the “air cover” the Democrats applied to their ground game across DuPage County. The Democrats in Dundee Township applied a similar air cover strategy through Senator Castro.
It worked. Can Kane County Republicans do the same?
Conclusion
With the defection of 2022 66th state Representative District Republican nominee Connie Cain to run as a Democrat in 2026, could some Republicans be contemplating a party switch as a political “transfer portal” to find electoral success in Kane County?
Can Republicans prevent more defeats in 2026 by engaging an “air war” campaign to complement the boots-on-the-ground as the Democrats showed they did in Kane County for the April 1 election?
Should Kane County Republicans create additional Township organizations or should Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) practice be applied to the county party?
We’ll know in a little less than 18 months, on November 3, 2026.
Marc Avelar lives in Dundee Township and served as an elected trustee for the village of Algonquin in the late 1990s. In 2022, Avelar was appointed to the Dundee Township Mental Health Board & has served as president of the Board for the past 2 ½ years. The opinions are his own.
