Aspiring Republican congressional candidates in the 3 congressional districts of Kane County (8th, 11th & 14th) have begun making their moves to be on the March 17, 2026, Republican primary ballot.
This is good for Kane County Republican primary voters to have choices to take on the Democrats in the open 8th Congressional District, as well as to challenge Democratic Congressman Bill Foster (D, Naperville) in the 11th and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D, Naperville) in the 14th.
14th Congressional District has Potential Tier 1 Candidate
The formation of an exploratory committee for state Representative Jed Davis (R, Newark) on May 17 signals Republican primary voters want a change from 2024 nominee James Marter (R, Oswego) to challenge Congresswoman Underwood in 2026. Davis is in his 2nd term representing the 75th Representative District in Springfield, and all remember he successfully primaried former state Representative David Welter (R, Morris) in 2022 as a grassroots candidate.
Davis will be a Tier 1 candidate. At the congressional level, a “Tier 1” candidate is a member of the state legislature, a mayor/village president or an at-large elected major countywide official (county board chair, state’s attorney, sheriff), or was recently (within 5 years) in one of those high profile local elected positions. Davis clearly qualifies as a Tier 1 candidate.
With the spring session completed in Springfield, look for Davis to formally kick off his campaign between now and the 4th of July.
11th Congressional District to be Contested
During the summer, expect Lieutenant Colonel (ret.) Michael Pierce (R, Naperville) to enter the primary race to challenge Congressman Foster in 2026. LTC Pierce will join the field consisting of 2024 IL-14 Republican primary candidate Charlie Kim (R, Naperville) and construction executive Tedora Brown (R, Oakbrook Terrace).
Tech entrepreneur Carmen Santiago-Keenon (R, St. Charles) is rumored to be looking at the 11th Congressional District race and has been making the rounds including attending the Illinois Republican Party’s Red Gala this spring.
To date, there is no indication any of the three 2024 Republican primary candidates will be entering the 11th Congressional District primary next year.
8th Congressional District to see Contested Primary in 2026
This past week, Russ Stewart’s political newsletter identified former tech company co-founder and author Jennifer Davis (R, unincorporated Huntley) as the “only” Republican in the 8th Congressional District and has the ability to self-fund a congressional race.
2024 nominee Mark Rice (R, Chicago) did file 2026 papers with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on May 12, after Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D, Schaumburg) announced his U.S. Senate candidacy, making the 8th an open seat race.
Assuming Jenn Davis does file to run in the 8th District, this will create a contested primary for the first time since 2022.
More Discernment Needed on Mark Rice Campaign
Late Saturday night May 31 at 10:42PM CDT, 2024 IL-08 Republican congressional nominee posted on his campaign Facebook page which demands more discernment.
Given feedback seen on social media, the reason Rice’s campaign is singled out for discernment has nothing to do with the articles published by Rice’s son and 2022 9th Congressional District nominee Max Rice critical of various Republican officials.
As stated in previous writings, I apply discernment to everyone. Rice, like me, grew up in Texas and we’re both alumni of The University of Texas, and he’s a native Texan (I was born in San Francisco).
“The tall tale is an art form in Texas,” is a quote by the fictional J.R. Ewing of the Dallas: The Early Yearsprequel movie from nearly 40 years ago. Once discernment applied, the Rice campaign showed their artistic talent with their 2026 campaign posts on Facebook.
Republican primary voters must apply discernment when nominating candidates in the 2026 primary election, and respecting voters with honesty and integrity including conclusions that stand up to discernment will bring competitive nominees to the voters in the fall of 2026.
“A Historically Competitive, Purple District”
Rice’s campaign attempts to manipulate the 2025 Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) published by Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and assesses each congressional district based on the presidential candidates’ performance in the previous two presidential elections. So, the 2025 Cook PVI is based on 2020 and 2024 presidential results within the congressional district and does not use congressional candidates’ performances in those two elections.
Per Russ Stewart’s analytics, President Trump lost IL-08 by 16 percentage points in 2020 and lost by 7 percentage points in 2024. The 2023 Cook PVI was “D+6”, so President Trump’s significant improvement last fall, 9 percentage points, changed the Cook PVI to “D+5” in 2025.
Remember, Rice lost to Krishnamoorthi by 14.2 percentage points, significantly underperforming President Trump by over 7 percentage points last fall.
“D+5 rating makes IL-08 a true swing district.”
The Rice campaign attempts to make the Cook PVI into a “rating”. Applying discernment to what the Cook PVI is opposed to a congressional district “rating” also published by Cook is a transparent attempt to make the PVI something it isn’t. From Cook’s website:
How is the Cook PVI different from race ratings?
Whereas race ratings reflect our outlook for which party will win the next election in each state and district, PVI values take a longer view and seek to measure the underlying partisanship of each district relative to the nation as a whole.
Since the Rice campaign brought up ratings, let’s look at initial 2026 congressional ratings for the 8thDistrict. Both Cook and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball opened up their respective 2026 ratings for IL-08 in mid-March as “Strong/Safe Democrat”. Since then, including after Krishnamoorthi announced his bid for Senate, there have been no ratings changes.
While there are other ratings services, I’ve found both Cook and Crystal Ball to be the most consistently reliable.
“Over the last 30 years, this district has alternated between 3 Democratic and 2 Republican reps. Voters here are pragmatic—not partisan—and are ready for strong leadership that Rice brings to the table.”
Over the past 30 years, the 8th Congressional District has been represented by:
- Phil Crane (R) – 1995 through 2004 (first elected in 1968)
- Melissa Bean (D) – 2005 through 2010
- Joe Walsh (R) – 2011 through 2012
- Tammy Duckworth (D) – 2013 through 2016
- Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) – 2017 through 2026
Throwing out the Crane years (which go back to the late 1960s), only Joe Walsh was elected as a Republican in the past 20 years in IL-08, as shared in the last month’s article about discernment. After the 2011 redistricting by the Illinois Democrats, the 8th District results haven’t been close and partisanship, not pragmatism, has been voters’ reflections as the 2026 House ratings indicate.
“With limited resources…”: IL-08 Campaign Spending Comparison from the FEC Reports
The quote from an April Rice campaign Facebook post is mostly repeated on May 31.
Congressional candidates are required to file their campaign disclosure reports to the FEC quarterly, so let’s see what happened in 2024 and where both Congressman Krishnamoorthi and Mark Rice stood through March 31, 2025:
Rice’s campaign raised $128,334 from donors through Nov 25, 2024. Through March 31, Rice only had 98K cash-on-hand. What will his July FEC filing show? Unless he does what former IL state Senator Jim Oberweis did in Florida and put in $2 million of his own money, not much.
Rice’s inability to raise money is why both grassroots conservatives and some in the Republican Party establishment pursued Jenn Davis to run for IL-08. Davis, a best-selling author, who sold her tech company for millions can easily afford to self-fund, per Russ Stewart’s newsletter last month.
“Democrats now face a crowded, expensive primary”
The Democrats will have to nominate a candidate and the Tier 1 candidate waiting-in-the-wings is state Senator Cristina Castro (D, Elgin). A May 8th social media post said she would make her decision to run after the spring session of the IL General Assembly ends. Radio show host and The Illinoize newsletter owner Patrick Pfingsten in a podcast on May 30, expects Castro to announce for the 8th.
While several Democrats have announced their intentions to run, only two Tier 2 candidates have emerged, and no other Tier 1s so among the Democrats, IL-08 is Castro’s to win/lose.
Castro started her career back in 2008 on the Kane County Board representing the 20th District. In 2016, Castro was elected to the state Senate in the 22nd Legislative District. She’s also the 8th Congressional District Democratic state central committeewoman.
Castro has built name recognition through her record of public service, while her name has been seen on the ballot across IL-08, as Democratic state central commiteepersons are elected by popular Democratic primary vote.
More importantly, Castro was very active in the recent April 1 elections that saw multiple townships in addition to Dundee and Elgin have Democratic slates wipeout Republicans. From Dundee Township in Kane County to Milton Township in DuPage County, as well as multiple Cook County townships, Castro was getting her name out, building her name recognition.So with every targeted mailing, Castro sent through the Democratic Party of Illinois (DPI), combined with additional DPI get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts across IL-08 through texting, emails and digital marketing, Castro’s effective letters linking concerns over President Trump back in the White House and voting for her endorsed candidates for township and other local offices, Castro not only built name recognition across IL-08, but with nearly all of her endorsed candidates winning on April 1, she built a grassroots army of elected officials who will be obligated to return the favor in 2026 in both the primary and general elections in IL-08.
The Rice campaign Facebook post missed that very real detail.
So, what did Mark Rice do to help Republicans on the ballot on April 1, particularly in the Dundee and Elgin township elections where Republican nominees faced Democratic challengers? Not much.
While Rice did attend multiple social events and walked a precinct here-and-there in 2025, none of his candidates he backed at these events won. Republican tickets in Dundee and Elgin townships were swept out of office by the Democrats Senator Castro backed.
Additionally, and more concerning for Republican primary voters, after reviewing Rice’s FEC filings as well as Illinois State Board of Elections contributions data filed through April 15, Rice only gave financial support to one candidate on the ballot on April 1 at a level requiring itemization: Sleepy Hollow Village Trustee Jenny McGuire running for the open village presidency. The result of Rice’s $560 campaign contribution to McGuire from his congressional committee? McGuire got smoked.
McGuire lost by a nearly 2 to 1 margin to Trustee Courtney Boe, who was the Democratic nominee for Kane County Board District 21 in 2022. Boe won election to the Sleepy Hollow Village Board in 2023 when McGuire was also elected, and now Democrat Boe is village president who will back the Democratic nominee for IL-08 next year.
Conclusion
Kane County Republican primary voters will have choices in the March primary for congressional nominations in the 8th, 11th & 14th districts. As candidates announce their intentions to run, primary voters must apply discernment to all of the candidates.
The 8th District could put 2024 nominee Mark Rice to the test competing in a contested primary for the first time. All of his claims of name ID and “ballot harvesting” will be tested in the face of a potential primary with Jenn Davis, and possibly other Republican candidates and discerning voters will learn if Rice’s campaign can truly walk-the-walk in addition to talk-the-talk.
Marc Avelar lives in Dundee Township and served as an elected trustee for the village of Algonquin in the late 1990s. In 2022, Avelar was appointed to the Dundee Township Mental Health Board & has served as president of the Board for the past 2 ½ years. The opinions are his own.
